Name: 7. What has been worrying or surprising us?
Start: 2021-01-08T17:55:00Z
End: 2021-01-08T17:55:33.000Z
Location: BrightTALK
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On this channel, you will get access to CRU’s webinars across the ferrous, non-ferrous and fertilizers sector. Please register to tailor your alerts so you will not miss out on any upcoming webinars, whilst listening to our past webinars.

The momentum behind ammonia as a decarbonisation solution continues to build. High gas prices, a global energy crunch and government subsidies have accelerated blue and green (low-emissions) ammonia project developments. But this is met by consternation among some market watchers, who cite inefficiencies and technical limitations as reasons why, they claim, low-emissions ammonia is an overhyped misallocation of capital. In this webinar, we delve into both sides of the argument and present our view on the evolution, opportunities and challenges of this nascent market.

Why attend?
• Gain an independent view on the arguments for and against ammonia as a decarbonisation solution.
• Understand the touted role of low-emissions ammonia as a marine fuel, hydrogen carrier, power source and low carbon fertilizer.
• The outlook for projects across the world and updates on financing and permitting developments.
• Detail on how this market may be valued in the future, and gain insight into CRU’s new weekly low-emissions ammonia price. 
• Q&A – providing you the opportunity to interact with our analysts and discuss their deep research into this market.

Ammonia in the energy transition – grappling with the hope, hype and hysteria

Electrification is the biggest disruption for the automotive industry in 100 years, with electric vehicles surpassing combustion engine vehicles in key markets. 

Apart from step changes to technology, supplier landscape and raw material costs, electrification is also fundamentally changing the way raw materials are consumed for vehicle.

CRU and A2MAC1 together are providing key insights on how material compositions in components such as the body and the powertrain are shifting, and how this affects the overall material cost baseline of vehicles now and in the future.

A2MAC1 & CRU : The electrifying cost of EV Materials!

COP27 officially started under the theme of “together for implementation”. The last negotiation saw a raft of headline grabbing commitments and pledges but little detail about how these could be hit. Since then, governments and corporations have come under increased pressure to provide detailed transition pathways.  COP27 was billed as the time when the global community delivered specifics on how these targets would be met and funded.  So, has COP27 made progress and will it be judged as a success or failure?

Join CRU for a round table discussion with our biggest takeaways from COP27. Hear answers to questions including:
• Will COP27 be judged as a success or failure? 
• What are the key takeaways?
• What progress has been made?

COP27– What has changed and why it matters

Significant changes have taken place in the US and European sheet markets versus a year ago. Prices have fallen, but so has steel production. As these markets face a challenging economic environment, we will provide insight for buyers and sellers of steel in 2023.

Join our steel metal experts during this webinar as they discuss and answer these questions:  
How do prices look in 2023 versus both 2021 and 2022?
What is the CRU View for demand and supply in the year ahead?
What are the key risks CRU sees for the 2023 market?

Dramatic changes in the EU & US steel market will affect contract negotiations

The CRU Breakfast returned this year on the 25th of October during LME week. 

Our analysts and experts were available to discuss the critical issues, challenges, and opportunities in the commodity markets.

The CRU Main Session Summary 

Inflation has reached multi-decade highs in the US and in Europe. Food and energy prices have rocketed, leading to a collapse in consumer confidence and headwinds for commodity demand.

The energy crunch is far from ending – high prices will remain. Volatility is set to intensify amid a precarious geopolitical environment.

Commodity and metals markets are deeply exposed. The prevalent recession risks could severely dampen demand. But inventories are low. Supply is exposed to fast changing terms of trade. Under-investment will bite.

The CRU breakfast will provide insights into the implications of high energy prices and inflation on commodity and metals markets, while answering. 

How will commodity producer costs and margins change in this new environment?

What is the impact on downstream consumers?

Who are the regional winners and losers?

How does bipolarity change commodity trade flows?

Does this slow or accelerate the energy transition?

CRU Breakfast Main Session 2022 LME Week

If COP26 was about commitments, then COP27 will need to focus on implementation. 

CRU expects that the negotiations will be fraught. Governments will be under pressure to make even more ambitious commitments at COP27. However, faced with high inflation rates, major fiscal pressures, global conflict and the energy crisis, significant breakthroughs will be hard to achieve, especially in terms of binding – and potentially costly – emission reduction goals.

The cost of this inaction now will disproportionately fall on hard-to-abate sectors with high emissions in the future.

The webinar will answer the following questions:
• What are the likely key priorities and difficulties at COP27?
• What has changed since COP26?
• What are the implications of COP27 for commodity markets and hard-to-decarbonise sectors?

Where next for climate policy discussions at COP27?

This year, LME metal prices slumped by between 25% and 55% in the months after March and April, as concerns grew over the global macroeconomic outlook and investors took flight from metals. While some LME prices have since rallied, the outlook for the major metal markets for 2023 remains highly uncertain. 
Significant risks to global metals demand persist as the Fed’s efforts to combat rising inflation in the US could throw the economy into a meaningful recession, while the looming energy crisis in Europe during the winter months, and continued war in Ukraine, could ignite a much more severe downturn in the region. 
Elsewhere, China is exposed to the inflation and growth problems in the rest of the world, but it also has its own domestic concerns headed by the government’s zero Covid-19 policy. Additionally, restoring confidence in the all-important residential property sector will be key.
And what of supply for 2023? The combination of lower metal prices, the deepening energy crisis, mine project ramp-ups and cost increases suggest production disruptions and cutbacks could remain high next year. 

Join us for this must-see pre-LME Week webinar and listen to CRU’s metal experts providing their answers to the following crucial questions:
• How will the major global developments outlined above shape global market balances and the path of LME metal prices in 2023?
• What are the major upside and downside risks to watch out for?

Please share your questions with us and join the webinar for this exciting discussion.

CRU’s pre-LME Week Webinar – What’s in store for the LME Metals in 2023?

The fertilizer market has been upended over 2021/22. Soaring gas prices, war in Ukraine, droughts, floods and a tense geopolitical environment have all contributed to volatile prices across nitrogen, phosphate and potash. The Asia Pacific market is particularly exposed to export restrictions from China and high prices. Will the market find the fertilizer it needs in 2023? And what prices might buyers need to pay? As CRU and the industry prepare for the upcoming IFA Crossroads Conference in Singapore, we dive into the key issues facing the industry. 

The complimentary live webinar includes discussion and Q&A, addressing the following topics: 
- Current fertilizer prices and forecasts over the coming 6 months
- Updates and expectations on Chinese fertilizer exports
- The key supply and demand dynamics to watch out for

Will Asia Pacific find the fertilizer it needs in 2023?

The growing importance of sustainability and the acceleration of the energy transition will dramatically and permanently alter aluminium markets. We are seeing more policies in this space and the new technologies needed to drive change. All aspects of the industry will transform, from supply to demand to costs.  Established trade routes will be rewritten and consumer demands will alter. Change is coming and it will create winners and losers, and leaders and laggards. Real world business decisions are already being driven by sustainability considerations and this is just the beginning. 

Questions that will be addressed : 

• How will the energy transition change aluminium markets? What might the supply and demand fundamentals look like in 2030 and beyond?
• Green premia - how will they be defined and how high will they go?
• What could growing policy changes, carbon costs and the CBAM mean for trade flows in the metals industry?
• How does the aluminium sector decarbonise and how much might it cost?

CRU Webinar Q&A : What does sustainability bring to the aluminium industry?

CRU is very pleased to announce that APAC- based CRU Analysts will present a webinar on APAC metals prospects for the remainder of 2022 and beyond. Following the backdrop of high commodity and energy prices we will consider the ongoing impact of the recent Covid-induced slowdown in Chinese economic activity and price correction. This webinar will examine the prospects for metals for the remainder of the year and beyond. 

Will China stimulate the economy?  
How will this impact metals demand, including the outlook for traditional metals and battery metals?  
Have prices fallen far enough to reduce production?  
What are the prospects for non-China APAC as supply chains relocate?

Join us to hear CRU experts' insights.

CRU APAC metals webinar: China demand recovery and metals supply chain prospects

Potash markets have been tight through 2021 and 2022. Sanctions on Belarus have restricted supply, while there has been uncertainty over access to Russian production. But demand is declining. Prices are dropping. Has potash peaked?
Agenda:
- Overview of potash market fundamentals
- How much are Russia and Belarus exporting, and where?
- What is the outlook for potash prices and margins? 

Please share your questions with us and join the webinar for this exciting discussion.

CRU Webinar: Q&A and market update session for the potash market

The paradox of ESG data is that much of the data must come from the sites themselves- this is the source- yet producers find it difficult to produce a standardised metric that can be used to compare to against their competitors on a like-by-like basis. 

While this is a common problem faced by all regulated industries, it is a particular challenge for hard-to-abate sectors like aluminium, steel, and nitrogen. Given the scale and complexity of the challenge, hard-to-abate industries need to get their data to relay a complex message to investors, buyers, suppliers, governments, and other stakeholders. 

The pressure put on supplies of energy commodities by the Ukraine war has added to the pressure. At the same time, the data must be trusted if it is to be used. GHG emissions have been arguably easy to standardise and build trust in, but other dimensions of sustainability are also important: can we shut our eyes to them just because they are hard to measure?

In this webinar, Charlie Durant, Research Manager, CRU Sustainability, Chris Bayliss, Director of Standards, Aluminium Stewardship Initiative, and Bruce Alway, Director-Metals Research, Refinitiv, will get together with Lavan Mahadeva, Research Director, CRU Group, to explain why we need to get behind all efforts to standardise and build trust in the data, to illustrate the power of good ESG data and to explore how this might be collectively achieved.

Building trust in ESG in hard to abate aluminium sector

The pent-up demand that has been building in the automotive supply chain is going to be unleashed just as gas prices in the US hit $5 per gallon. US automobile consumers may turn to the emerging EV market to satisfy the itch for a new vehicle while trying to avoid $100 per fill-up at the gas pumps. The EV demand, and with it, EV battery demand will fire-up quickly.

Is the automotive supply chain in the Americas region ready for these new challenges and how will it impact the commodity markets? What are the expectations of commodity consumption through 2023 by the automotive market?

During this webinar, CRU experts from the aluminium, steel, and base-metals markets will appraise the latest developments, challenges, and issues in the Automotive sector and answer questions from the audience.

The complimentary live webinar includes discussion and Q&A, addressing the following topics: 
1. The automotive supply chain is improving, will it return to pre-Covid build rates? 
2. Wire and cable found new applications in EVs, what does this mean to copper/aluminium demand outlook? 
3. The automotive industry is moving from ‘just in time’ to ‘just in case’, how will the supply chain cope with the changes?

The session will be hosted by Aaron Pollock, Vice President of Sales - The Americas, with speakers Steve Williamson, Research Manager - Aluminium, Josh Spoores, Principal Analyst – Steel, and Chenfei Wang, Senior Analyst – Base Metals.

Supply chain challenges in the automotive sector: Impact on the commodity market

The fertilizer market has drastically changed over the past year. The war in Ukraine and its subsequent sanctions, protectionist trade policies, and gas price inflation have all changed how we do business and who we conduct business with. 

As the fertilizer industry prepares to gather at the annual IFA conference in Vienna, this webinar addresses the key issues across the industry and prepares you for your business meetings.

The complimentary live webinar includes discussion and Q&A, addressing the following topics:
o Understand how the war in Ukraine has changed the supply and demand dynamics of the fertilizer industry 
o Where are prices now and what is their projected direction over the next 12 months? 
o How has investment appetite in the industry changed, where does ESG fit into this?

IFA Conference 2022–The fertilizer market information you need before the event

North American demand for steel, aluminium, copper and battery metals is at unprecedented heights.  The convergence of circular economies, a sustainability-minded consumer base, and overall economic growth is stretching these value chains to the brink. With exciting new investments being announced to bridge the supply deficits, CRU forecasts sustained demand for North American products despite inflationary headwinds and war in Ukraine triggering a redesign of strategic supply chains.

The complimentary live webinar includes discussion and Q&A, addressing the following topics:
• The Globalization era is coming to an end, how will domestic and local supply chains evolve to support these value chains?
• What is behind the recent wave of investment in greenfield and brownfield assets including the first new aluminium Hot Mill in the US in nearly 4 decades?
• How will recycled materials factor into CRU’s supply models to underpin the demand projections?

CRU Webinar: Challenges facing the North American metals supply chain

CRU have identified a number of key battery market themes to watch in 2022. These cover topics including raw materials pricing, supply chain investment and restructuring, battery chemistries and EV sales.

During this webinar, we will discuss the latest developments in these areas and answer questions from the audience as well as discuss market impacts from the war in Ukraine:

Review of CRU’s 2022 market themes
Discussion of recent developments & current market dynamics
Impacts from the war in Ukraine
Q&A

Discussing the latest on CRU’s battery metals themes for 2022

With markets in apparent disarray, experts from all major commodity areas will join with CRU’s Head of Economics and an energy specialist to appraise markets one month on from the invasion of Ukraine. They will share their independent analysis of the implications of the war on commodity markets now, and in future scenarios.

The free webinar includes discussion and Q&A, addressing the following topics:
1. Who’s hit hardest and what does recovery look like?
2. Where will lost supply come from, and at what cost?
3. Where next for commodity and energy prices and what will this mean for inflation?

Agenda Overview- 
1. The impact of sanctions and high energy prices
2. Disruption to supply
3. Demand destruction
4. The role of China and other potential markets for Russia

War in Ukraine – The impact on commodity markets

How the war in Ukraine is impacting the aluminium industry

The war in Ukraine is impacting the entire aluminium value chain from carbon products upstream all the way to beverage packaging downstream. The situation is evolving rapidly and there are a wide range of scenarios depending on trade flows, costs, demand and output. In this webinar we will share our latest views on these topics and answer your questions on these issues.

Join CRU Aluminium’s Q&A Session

Refocusing on steel and aluminium value chains, we analyse technology solution feasibility and the implications of the developing circular economy for ferrous and aluminium scrap markets. Key issues discussed include the potential impact on electricity prices from increased use of hydrogen-based steelmaking, adequacy of scrap supply in certain economies and meeting product quality requirements through scrap-based production technology improvements. CRU also highlights the gap between forecasted emissions generation and those required to meet temperature rise limitation scenarios.

7. What has been worrying or surprising us?

aliminium

Aluminium Markets

Analysis

circular economy

Economics

Emissions

steel

Technology

value chains

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7. What has been worrying or surprising us?

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