Inflation is at decade highs in both the US and UK. An increase in certain commodity prices such as oil and agricultural products directly impact the CPI as consumer fuel and food prices reflect the commodity price increase: essentially, commodities are often a driver of inflation.
However, there are also indirect effects of price increases on the CPI having to do with higher input costs being transferred to consumers - this inflation measure is known as the PPI.
Historically, commodities have had a statistically significant positive unexpected inflation beta between 7 and 9, meaning that an increase in unexpected inflation suggests a larger increase in commodity prices. In the third installment of this series, professional investors will gain more of an insight into input cost inflation, and how an increase in such creates a feedback loop for inflation as a whole.
Can commodities help your portfolio outperform inflation when traditional assets are struggling?