Name: Does a Downturn in the Housing Market Spell Trouble for Canadian Banks?
Start: 2022-11-04T17:02:00Z
End: 2022-11-04T17:03:03.000Z
Location: BrightTALK
Rating: 0

Morningstar DBRS is a leading provider of independent rating services and opinions for corporate and sovereign entities, financial institutions, and project and structured finance instruments globally. Rating more than 4,000 issuers and 60,000 securities, we are one of the top four credit rating agencies in the world and a market leader in Canada, the U.S. and Europe in multiple asset classes.



Join Morningstar DBRS for a 2025 Credit Outlook webinar on Italy's macroeconomic economic outlook presented by Javier Rouillet, Senior Vice President, Global Sovereign Ratings.

In this webinar, we will discuss overall recent economic developments, main growth drivers and factors to watch in 2025. Also, we will be discussing public finance trends.

2025 Credit Outlook: Italy

Join Morningstar DBRS on 12 December 2024 for a webinar hosted by Sonja Forster, Senior Vice President, European Financial Institution Ratings and Arnaud Journois, Senior Vice President, European Financial Institution Ratings. Our analysts will focus on European banking trends in 2024 and delve into the challenges expected in 2025, with emphasis on the impact of rate cuts, asset quality trends, the geopolitical environment and regulatory changes.

The discussion will last approximately 30 minutes and will be followed by an interactive question-and-answer session. Morningstar DBRS welcomes all who wish to participate.

2025 Credit Outlook: European Banking

Morningstar DBRS released its semiannual North America Macroeconomic Update. The U.S. economy continues to experience robust and broad-based growth. The IMF projects the economy will expand 2.8% this year, which is more than double the growth rate of the next fastest country among the G-10. Whereas the U.S. is operating at or above capacity, Canada is operating with slack. We expect growth in Canada to accelerate in 2025 from its lackluster performance in 2024. Labor markets look better balanced going into 2025, and inflation trends are favorable. The greatest risk to the outlook comes from the potential imposition of tariffs.

2025 Credit Outlook: North America Macroeconomic Update

During the third quarter of 2024, Morningstar DBRS issued and refreshed a total of 381 CEs across 362 borrowers for 27 lenders including managers of CLOs and private credit funds. Total volumes include CEs assigned to new borrowers and existing CEs refreshed for periodic review and amendments, as well as a handful of internal assessments. Currently, Morningstar DBRS assigns CEs to about 1,400 leveraged corporate borrowers. CEs are not credit ratings, but rather point-in-time assessments of credit quality, which are used to estimate borrower default likelihood in CLOs, rated feeder funds, investment fund debt, equipment leases, and other structured finance transactions.

Join Morningstar DBRS on December 11 at 1:00 p.m. ET for a Frontline Perspectives webinar detailing third-quarter CE activity and performance, presented by Jerry van Koolbergen and Orest Gavrylak. The discussion will highlight overall credit quality, financial metrics year-to-date, revenue growth, and anticipated CE volume in the final quarter of 2024.

Frontline Perspectives: Credit Estimate Quarterly Snapshot Q3 2024

The credit quality of Canadian provinces remains strong and resilient. Under the weight of higher interest rates, economic growth has been lacklustre in 2024. As a result, fiscal improvement has largely stalled or taken a step backwards in some cases; however, provincial debt-to-GDP remains largely in check, helped by material upward revisions to historical GDP.  Looking ahead to 2025, we see little prospect of ratings improvement, while downside may be increasing for some. A further easing in monetary policy is expected to provide a boost to domestic economic activity, although changes to federal immigration policy and the threat of more restrictive trade policy cloud the outlook. Political uncertainty remains heightened in Canada with a federal election required by the fourth quarter, if not earlier, and the potential for an early election in Canada's most populous province, Ontario.

2025 Credit Outlook: Canadian Provincial Ratings

DBRS Morningstar invites you to attend a webinar on the 10th of December. The webinar will be hosted by Mario De Cicco, Vice President, Global Insurance & Pension Ratings and Javier Rouillet, Senior Vice President, Global Sovereign Ratings

In this webinar, they will provide observations on the performance of the Italian Insurance sector during 2024, as well as our outlook for 2025. Our analysts will share their perspectives on the potential challenges and opportunities for Italian insurers that lay ahead in the current macroeconomic and geopolitical environment.

The discussion will last approximately 30 minutes and will be followed by an interactive question-and-answer session. Morningstar DBRS welcomes all who wish to participate.

*This webinar will be in English

2025 Credit Outlook: Italian Insurance

Global economic conditions have remained broadly favorable during 2024. as major central banks in the Americas and Europe have begun reducing interest rates with the easing of inflationary pressures. As rates continue to gradually decrease, monetary policy is expected to be less of a drag on economic activity in 2025. While the IMF World Economic Outlook predicts global growth in the year ahead, we remain cautious of the impacts of U.S. policy changes, regional conflicts, China's domestic growth and tension with Western democracies, and increasing climate and weather risks.

Further, democracies with federal elections in 2025 include Canada, Australia, Germany, and Poland, all of which could change the global landscape. Affordability concerns and low consumer confidence has persisted in many advanced economies, resulting in political discontent and weaker private consumption growth.

2025 Credit Outlook: Sovereign Ratings

Join Morningstar DBRS on 05 December for a Frontline Perspectives Webinar on navigating geopolitical challenges. This panel will explore the major geopolitical challenges currently shaping the global landscape. The discussion will cover critical regions, including the Baltics, Scandinavia and both Northern and Southern Europe, with a focus on the impact of security 

The panel will also examine how these geopolitical risks influence European sovereign credit ratings, highlighting potential mitigating factors and the likelihood of opportunities

Frontline Perspective - Navigating Geopolitical Challenges:  Insights from European  Sovereign Analysts

Join Morningstar DBRS for a webinar on 04 December hosted by Jorge Espinosa, Assistant Vice President, Global Sovereign Ratings. 

In this webinar, they will provide insights on the evolution of the fiscal performance of the Spanish regions in 2024, as well as our outlook for 2025. Our analysts will share their perspectives on the potential challenges and opportunities for these regions and discuss interest rates, debt metrics and fiscal consolidation.
The discussion will last approximately 30 minutes and will be followed by an interactive question-and-answer session. Morningstar DBRS welcomes all who wish to participate.

2025 Credit Outlook: Spanish Autonomous Communities

Join us for a discussion on the Canadian Structured Finance Market, where panelists will focus on the state of the Canadian consumer in the current macroeconomic environment. You can also expect a general performance update of asset classes and a deep dive into the EV market as the sector grows.

2025 Credit Outlook Toronto: Canadian Structured Finance Performance Update

Kunal Kapoor, CEO, Morningstar sat down with Suzanne Akers, CRO, AIMCo to discuss how their organizations are navigating sustainability in long-term investments, incorporating ESG risks and changing market dynamics.

2025 Credit Outlook Toronto: Morningstar and AIMCo Fireside Chat

While the march towards energy transition continues, the road is filled with unique challenges. Join us for an in-depth conversation with Matthew A. Akman, Executive Vice President, Corporate Strategy and President, Power at Enbridge, as he provides his insights on Enbridge’s approach to investing in renewable energy. The discussion will include an overview of Enbridge’s investment preferences and a discussion on the challenges associated with the regulatory environment, tariffs, access to key raw materials and grid infrastructure.

2025 Credit Outlook Toronto: How Enbridge is Navigating the Energy Transition Roadway

Morningstar DBRS invites you to join us at 2025 Credit Outlook: Germany, where we will present key insights and risk factors for the year ahead.

2025 Credit Outlook: Germany

Numerous countries and corporations globally have now established definitive energy transition objectives. Progress is underway, but many challenges lie ahead in meeting the various objectives. In a panel discussion moderated by Aran Thavaraja, Director, Corporate Debt Strategy, BMO Capital Markets, our Corporate analytical team will discuss how rated entities in project finance, auto manufacturing, engineering and construction, airlines, and fuel production are managing the energy transition pathway. We will provide our thoughts and opinions on planned strategies, progress, challenges, geopolitical considerations, and credit implications for entities in these specific sectors.

2025 Credit Outlook Toronto: Assessing Energy Transition Strategies and Credit Implications

Although the Bank of Canada has started its monetary policy easing cycle, credit, regulatory, and regional challenges still persist for the Canadian banks. Housing costs continue to weigh down Canadian households, commercial real estate, particularly the office sector, remains a concern, the U.S. regional bank sector is posing headwinds, regulatory developments continue to drive capital management strategies, and operational risk management issues are causing heightened concerns.

2025 Credit Outlook Toronto: Canadian Banks - Credit, Regulatory, and Regional Challenges Persist

Hear from our sovereign team on recent and historical rating actions and trends, as well as our global economic outlook for 2025 as we consider geopolitical risks and tensions.

2025 Credit Outlook Toronto: Global Sovereign Outlook

Join Morningstar DBRS for a Frontline Perspectives webinar as we examine the growing penetration of private-label CSPs globally, and the implications thereof for manufacturers of branded CSPs and grocers.

Although inflation is normalizing, prices of consumer staple products remain elevated. This, combined with high interest rates that are only slowly declining, has continued to squeeze consumer purchasing power, contributing to the growing penetration of private-label CSPs. In 2022 and 2023, sales of private-label CSPs grew considerably more than those of their branded counterparts, and now account for around 40% and 20% of the total grocery market value in Europe and the U.S., respectively, while in the U.K., private-label CSPs make up more than 50% of all grocery sales. Does the proliferation of private-label CSPs signal the beginning of the end for branded consumer product companies?

Frontline Perspectives: Branded Versus Private-Label Consumer Staple Products - The Battle Continues

Join Morningstar DBRS on September 11 for a Frontline Perspectives webinar on trends in global corporate real estate and CMBS sectors. Some of these include the growth of data centers as an asset class, re-opening up of the NA CMBS market and acceleration of Corporate Real Estate issuance, and an update on the trends in CMBS surveillance.

Frontline Perspectives: Trends In Global Corporate Real Estate and CMBS Sectors

Canadian Insurance Industry Year in Review and Outlook

Canadian Telecom Issuers

Sustainability in Real Estate: Risks and Opportunities

Integrating Renewables - New Challenges and Opportunities

Canadian Structured Finance Update

Sovereign Outlook 2023

In Conversation with Kannan Amaresh

DBRS Morningstar 2023 Credit Outlook

The Canadian housing market has seen great volatility as the economy reboundedfrom the pandemic, surging by approximately 50% from pre-pandemic levels and then abruptly going into a downturn starting in March alongside the start of a rapid and aggressive interest rate tightening cycle by the Bank of Canada. 

This session will discuss how elevated household debt levels and housing prices remain key vulnerabilities in the Canadian financial system, touching on potential impacts, vulnerabilities and risks to credit quality and the economy.

Does a Downturn in the Housing Market Spell Trouble for Canadian Banks?

Housing

Interest Rates

Mortgages

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Does a Downturn in the Housing Market Spell Trouble for Canadian Banks?

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